Heavy Vehicle Characterization and Benefits Analysis

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Office of Planning, Budget and Analysis provides estimates of program benefits in its annual Congressional Budget Request. The Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) of 1993 serves as the basis for assessing the performance of federally funded programs. These estimates, which are often referred to as "GPRA Benefits Estimates," include estimates of some of the economic, environmental, and security benefits associated with achieving program goals.

Background

Argonne National Laboratory (through a subcontractor) is responsible for developing the GPRA benefits estimates for EERE's Vehicle Technologies Program's heavy vehicle technology research activities. Argonne researchers develop the benefits analysis using four primary reference sources:

• Technology energy efficiency and fuel use characteristics as provided by the managers of the technology programs;
• Vehicle characteristics and use information as obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau's 2002 Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey;
• Truck operator investment requirements; and
• Important background information, such as energy prices and baseline technology fuel economies from DOE's Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) reports.

By categorizing vehicles according to usage patterns, researchers can identify which vehicle types accumulate the greatest number of miles, and therefore, offer the best potential to benefit from an investment in energy-conserving technology. Market segmentation also identifies travel distributions for heavy vehicles that use central refueling sites and those that do not. This information is important because central refueling is more conducive to the introduction of alternative fuels.

Models

The linkage of several spreadsheet models generates initial benefits estimates. The models currently used include:

• Heavy Truck Energy Balance (HTEB) model;
• Heavy Truck (TRUCK 2.0) model;
• VISION model; and
• Heavy Truck Summary (HvyTrkSum) model.

The HTEB model calculates the fuel economy of each of the four vehicle types on the basis of vehicle and engine characteristics and energy flows, both for the base case and the base case, with technical improvements expected as a result of research activities. These fuel economy estimates and cost estimates are entered into the TRUCK 2.0 model.

The energy prices and projections used in the TRUCK 2.0 model are derived from the most recent AEO report. The model estimates the potential market impacts of new technologies on the medium and heavy truck market. The model generates the following results:

• Market penetrations, in percent of new vehicles sold for each type and class of vehicle, and
• Composite fuel economy rating of the vehicles sold.

The researchers use the market penetration data to estimate petroleum savings benefits through a link to the VISION model. This vehicle stock model calculates the rate of market penetration of the new technologies in the entire fleet of Class 3-8 trucks and the subsequent energy and oil use and carbon emissions savings of the new technologies.

These results are linked to the HvyTrkSum model, which calculates the energy, emissions, and economic benefits attributable to the use of the advanced technologies. Results generated include:

• Class 3-8 energy and emissions reductions
• Technology market penetrations
• Sales and stocks of advanced technology vehicles
• Heavy vehicle energy use, including a breakdown by class and technology
• Contributions to benefits of each technology and by each vehicle type
• Carbon dioxide emissions and emissions reduction
• Energy cost savings

Heavy Truck Benefits Analysis Models

Relationship of the four spreadsheet models used to generate GPRA Benefits Estimates

More

• Analysis of Major Trends in U.S. Commercial Trucking, 1977-2002 (May 2009; PDF 593 kB)
• Vehicle Technologies Heavy Vehicle Program: FY 2008 Benefits Analysis, Methodology and Results - Final Report (PDF 1.0 MB)
• Vehicle Technologies Heavy Vehicle Program: FY 2007 Benefits Analysis, Methodology and Results - Final Report (PDF 1.0 MB)
• Congressional Budget Request
• GPRA 1993

July 2009