Estimating Energy Use, Oil Use, and Carbon Emission Impacts of Advanced Vehicles and Fuels

Background

In the quest to identify viable alternative technologies and fuels that can help our nation reduce its dependence on petroleum, researchers require tools that can help them analyze all aspects of performance, including potential energy use, oil use, and carbon emissions. That's not easy to do when those technologies and fuels are still being developed. Fortunately, computers can help with that task, enabling analysts to model various fuel and technology scenarios at their desks.

Argonne's Research

Argonne developed the VISION model to provide estimates of the potential energy use, oil use, and carbon emission impacts of advanced light and heavy-duty vehicle technologies and alternative fuels though the year 2050. The model consists of two Excel workbooks: (1) a Base Case of U.S. highway fuel use and carbon emissions to 2050, and (2) a copy of the Base Case that can be modified to reflect alternative assumptions about advanced vehicle and alternative fuel market penetration.

Argonne updates the VISION model annually. The Base Case in the most recent version of the model is based on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) projections of light and heavy vehicle energy use in its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2007 report. EIA's AEO 2007 projections end in the year 2030. In the VISION model, these projections are extended to the year 2050. For greenhouse gas emissions, the VISION model uses carbon coefficients derived from Argonne 's GREET model. The carbon coefficients are for the full fuel cycle.

Downloading VISION

The latest version of the model is called "VISION 2007 AEO Base Case Expanded." We have expanded the model from prior versions to incorporate plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and a fuel flexibility option for advanced technology vehicles.

• Download the VISION 2007 AEO Base Case Expanded Model

Older versions of the model are available at the bottom of this page.

Instructions for using the Model are provided below, and the model contains a User Guide on the first sheet of the Excel workbook. Notes contained throughout the workbook indicate the sources of data used in the model (though they may not be completely up-to-date). A report describing the model in greater detail is provided below. It specifically discusses the "VISION 2.0 Fixed MPG Base Case with AEO 2003 Data" version of the model, but is still useful in understanding the latest version of the model.

• VISION Model: Description of Model Used to Estimate the Impact of Highway Vehicle Technologies and Fuels on Energy Use and Carbon Emissions to 2050 (333kb pdf) [Download Acrobat Reader ]
• Copyright Statement and User Agreement
• Instructions

The VISION model has been developed by various analysts over time. Primary credit goes to John Maples, now of EIA, and to Anant Vyas and Margaret Singh of Argonne National Laboratory, for substantial updating. Phil Patterson, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, sponsors the work.

Earlier Versions of VISION

• "VISION 2.0 Fixed MPG Base Case with AEO 2003 Data" reflects data from EIA's AEO 2003 report, though some sections do not. In particular, the base case does not use EIA's fuel economy by vehicle type estimates and instead assumes a fixed MPG for conventional internal combustion engines (ICE) operating on gasoline in the future. Further, where EIA estimates some penetration of advanced technology vehicles and alternative fuels, the base case does not.
• Download the VISION 2.0 Model
  
• "VISION 2004 Fixed MPG Base Case" incorporates the "VISION 2.0 Fixed MPG Base Case" with data from EIA's AEO 2004 report.
• Download the VISION 2004 Fixed MPG Model
  
• "VISION 2004 AEO ICE MPG Base Case incorporates the "VISION 2004 Fixed MPG Base Case" and uses EIA's average new vehicle fuel economy estimates to 2025 and then extends them, but assumes that all vehicles are conventional ICE engines operating on gasoline.
• Download the VISION 2004 Auto ICE Model
  
• "VISION 2005 Fixed-MPG Base Case" incorporates the two earlier Fixed-MPG Base Case models with data from EIA's AEO 2005 report.
• Download the VISION 2005 Fixed MPG Model
  
• "VISION 2005 AEO ICE MPG Base Case" incorporates the "VISION 2004 AEO ICE MPG Base Case" with data from EIA's AEO 2005 report.
• Download the VISION 2005 Auto ICE Model
  
• "VISION 2006 AEO ICE MPG Base Case" uses EIA's AEO 2006 projections of both advanced vehicle technology penetration and new vehicle fuel economy estimates to 2030 and then extends them.
• Download the VISION 2006 AEO Model

September 18, 2007